Supercomputer predicts bad news for Arsenal and Man City in title challenge with Liverpool

A new supercomputer has predicted a potential downfall for , suggesting they could end up in eighth place if their current form persists - with still leading the way at the top.

The Gunners kicked off the season with high hopes of ending a two-decade-long wait for their fourth Premier League trophy. Under the leadership of Mikel Arteta, they've finished as runners-up to for two consecutive years.

Their campaign has started on a positive note, with five victories and two draws placing them third in the Premier League table. They trail behind City, who are in second place, and Liverpool, who are leading under their new manager Arne Slot.

However, despite their strong start, there are concerns about the Gunners' underlying numbers which could potentially lead to an unexpected downfall. So far, Arteta's squad has netted 15 goals and conceded only six, amassing the same points as City.

But Opta's new supercomputer suggests that Arsenal might be heading for trouble. The stats company used their expected points model to determine which teams are overperforming or underperforming this season.

The model simulates the number of goals each team would score in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses these simulated goal numbers to predict the outcome of the match (win/draw/loss).

Each match is simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose. Arteta will undoubtedly be disappointed to see that the model suggests his team should currently be sitting in eighth place.

A peculiar set of circumstances might be the reason behind Arsenal's low ranking in that supercomputer. The Gunners found themselves a man down against both Brighton and Manchester City, which led to a shift towards a more defensive strategy, allowing their rivals to pile on the pressure.

Despite this, they managed to secure a victory over Aston Villa, even though Unai Emery's squad had the upper hand in terms of chances. It's quite an achievement then, that Arsenal are among the leading contenders in the title race.

However, it's Liverpool who are currently at the top of the table, and according to the Opta model, they fully deserve their spot. Slot's team has only let in two goals this season, stemming from a league-low 5.2 expected goals against.

With a positive expected goal difference of +8.9, they're comfortably ahead of any other team. Interestingly, the model suggests that Chelsea should be in second place, not the usual champions, City.

Draws at home against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest have cost them, with the Blues 'winning' those matches according to the expected goals model. In this model, City trail just behind in third place, while Tottenham complete the top four.