Maharashtra elections: How the odds are stacked for BJP and opposition

With the Election Commission (EC) announcing poll dates for assembly elections in Maharashtra on Tuesday, the stage is set for an interesting clash as the BJP's Haryana victory has infused new energy in the party after its less-than-expected performance in the Lok Sabha polls which many think had signalled voters' ennui with the party after its long electoral hegemony. The Congess and other opposition parties expected to have a "psychological" advantage over the BJP.

Maharashtra will vote on November 20 for 288 assembly seats and the results will be out on November 23. The key contenders in the Maharashtra elections are the ruling Mahayuti Alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP ( Sharad Pawar faction), and Congress.

BJP-led Mahyuti alliance's poor performance in Lok Sabha polls
In the recent parliamentary elections to 48 seats in the state, the opposition MVA fared better. The BJP's share fell to nine seats, down from 23 seats five years ago. The MVA secured 30 seats. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP, in alliance with the Shiv Sena, secured 185 seats. However, in 2019, the number dropped to 161 after the alliance fractured due to disputes over the chief minister's post. The 2024 Lok Sabha results delivered an even more severe blow, with the Mahayuti winning only 17 out of 48 seats, nine of which went to the BJP. This is in stark contrast to the 2019 elections, when the BJP-Sena alliance swept 41 of the 48 seats.

The poor performance was seen as a popular vote against the BJP's politics of splitting two state parties, the Shiv Sena and the NCP, and allying with the split-away factions to form the Mahyuti alliance. It was widely believed that the following assembly elections will be tough for Mahayuti, with rumours of Ajit Pawar's NCP merging back into the Sharad Pawar faction in addition to speculation about differences between the BJP and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. However, Mahyuti parties were making all efforts to improve their performance in the assembly elections, with a special focus on welfare policies. The recent shock victory of the BJP over the Congress in Haryana, which was expected to be a hands-down winner against the BJP which carried 10-year-long incumbency, has put a new energy in Mahayuti. The Maharashtra will have an interesting contest where the MVA, the star of the Lok Sabha polls in the state, will face off with a newly energised Mahayuti. In the 2019 assembly election, the BJP won 105 seats and the Congress 44.

Will Haryana outcome impact Maharashtra?
Haryana and Maharashtra may not have many things in common. But there is an uncanny similarity in how the BJP was placed vis-à-vis the opposition in both the states after Lok Sabha elections. In Haryana, the Congress had wrested five Lok Sabha seats from the BJP, while in Maharashtra the opposition bloc MVA defeated the BJP-led Mahayuti out and out. In Lok Sabha elections, BJP and allies got 17 seats while the opposition MVA of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) won 30 of the 48 seats. However, the Haryana outcome has proved that a good show in Lok Sabha elections in a state may not be enough to win assembly elections in that state.

Following its Lok Sabha victory in Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which comprises Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena(UBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP), was quick to claim that it was the beginning of the end of Eknath Shinde government in the state. Several MVA leaders had then claimed that the people of Maharashtra would throw out the Mahayuti government in the upcoming assembly elections. But as Haryana outcome shows people of the state can vote differently in national and state elections. So, Lok Sabha advantage is no guarantee of assembly elections success.

Will the MVA bloc learn its lessons?
However, the Haryana outcome can serve as a wakeup call for the opposition's MVA alliance and force it to sharpen its strategy.

After the Congress's poor show in Haryana and J&K elections, INDIA bloc parties came out against it for "ignoring allies" and blamed its "arrogance and overconfidence" for the debacle. In what political circles saw as an attempt to pressure Congress into conceding more seats in ensuing state elections, the allies cautioned the biggest party in the bloc against "complacency" and asked it to be more "accommodative" with them as well as shed its sense of "entitlement".

In Maharashtra, the MVA partners have been struggling to reach a mutually acceptable seat-sharing deal amid claims and counterclaims by the three parties based on Lok Sabha results. The Haryana results may help the allies realise the importance of staying united in their fight against the BJP-led Mahayuti. Also, the regional allies may now have an upper hand over the Congress, which would be wary of pushing too hard.

The defeat in Haryana and the lacklustre performance in Jammu could prompt Congress to adopt a more cooperative and realistic approach, which would help establish agreeable terms among the alliance members.

Mahayuti is not leaving anything to chance
The BJP's Haryana victory has shown hope to Mahayuti. But even before the Haryana results, Mahayuti leaders were planning not to leave anything to chance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Union Home Minister Amit Shah themselves had put a personal focus on Maharashtra.

Modi has been making frequent visits to Maharashtra, underlining the party's determination to regain momentum. Recently, Modi inaugurated the Vadhavan Port in Mumbai and attended the first anniversary celebration of the Vishwakarma scheme in Vidarbha's Wardha district. He launched a fierce attack on the Congress and the Gandhi family, criticising their leadership and lack of development initiatives. Modi also visited the Jagdamba Mata temple at Poharadevi in Washim district. He inaugurated the Metro Line-3 between BKC and Aarey JVLR in Mumbai and laid the foundation stones of various development initiatives worth over Rs 32,800 crore including the Thane Integral Ring Metro Rail Project, Elevated Eastern Freeway Extension, and the Navi Mumbai Airport Influence Notified Area (NAINA) project. Meanwhile, Amit Shah has been touring Vidarbha and Marathwada, two critical regions for the party, as well as holding extensive meetings with local party leaders and workers to review poll preparations.

The BJP is relying on women and farmer-centric initiatives of the state government as the party was bolstered by the recent victory in Haryana when poll pundits had written off the BJP, TOI reported. The party, sources told TOI, will also reach out to Dalit voters and several events have been planned. Mahar, Chamar, Matang and Valmiki are the four dominant Dalit sub-castes in the state.

Chief minister Shinde has promised monetary benefits of Mukhyamantri Mazhi Ladki Bahin scheme will be increased to Rs 3,000 from the existing Rs 1,500 per beneficiary per month if the alliance is re-elected.

A few days ago, the state government recommended that the National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) extend loans worth Rs 815 crore to five cooperative sugar factories linked to politicians from the ruling parties in the Mahayuti alliance.

(With inputs from TOI)