A Return to 'Maximum Pressure'? How Trump Could Influence Iran and Beyond

With Donald Trump’s  powerful return to the White House as President-elect, the Middle East hopes substantial shifts as regional dynamics evolve. Trump’s first term placed significant focus on the Middle East, especially in relations with Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states. His return could bring intensified approaches to ongoing regional challenges, but how might his strategies change, and what could this mean for the major players in the region?

One area analysts expect Trump to prioritize is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. During his previous term, Trump offered strong support for Israel, overseeing the signing of the Abraham Accords, which established normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. However, a second Trump term may bring a more assertive stance toward resolving the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative, expressed concerns that Trump’s approach could pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address regional conflicts but warned that Trump's alignment with Israel might hinder a lasting peace for Palestinians. Barghouti believes that Trump's prior support for Israel has dimmed hopes for a two-state solution. He added that Trump's stance could lead to further Israeli annexation in the West Bank, which may jeopardize any prospects for Palestinian self-determination.

Trump’s past “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran could also see a resurgence, especially given Iran’s recent nuclear developments. This strategy previously strained Iran’s economy, and a similar approach could further isolate Tehran. Experts suggest that Trump’s stance may embolden Israeli efforts to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially heightening regional volatility.

Trump’s long-standing relationship with Gulf Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, may also play a key role in his Middle East policy. Despite controversies during his first term, such as the Saudi-led conflict in Yemen, Trump remained a steadfast partner to Gulf nations, especially in opposing Iran’s regional influence. However, with the Gulf states deepening ties with China, Trump could press these nations to distance themselves from Beijing—a shift that might strain alliances, especially in Saudi Arabia.

Normalizing Israel’s position in the region remains another Trump priority. Yet, Saudi Arabia has been firm on not establishing formal relations with Israel unless a feasible Palestinian state is achieved. Additionally, Qatar, with its connections to Hamas, may face tensions with the U.S. under Trump’s administration as it aligns with regional allies against hostile forces.

As Trump prepares for another term, the Middle East will closely monitor his evolving approach to regional issues. From Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy to escalating pressure on Iran, Trump’s policies could reshape alliances, intensify conflicts, and redefine America’s influence in the region.

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