China war games show Taiwan conflict still real risk as world focuses on Middle East

The prospect of war in East Asia seems to have diminished as first and now conflict in the has knocked the - dispute off the news agenda.

But, be under no illusion, the prospect of war over the Taiwan Strait is very much alive.

As if the world needed reminding, this week Communist China launched new military drills off the coast of Taiwan as "punishment" for Taiwanese President, Lai Ching-te, promising to "resist annexation" or "encroachment upon our sovereignty".

Lai - who won the Taiwanese election in January - has long been viewed by as a separatist, even more than his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, who the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) equally despised.

On Monday, Taiwan detected 34 naval vessels and 125 aircraft around itself, with China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) stating the drills were designed to simulate attacking Taiwan by land, sea and air, as well as blockading its ports.

While the drills were expected, their timing highlights the ongoing ambition of the CCP to conquer the island democracy either through conquest or blockade.

The reason? Taiwan sits right in the heart of what China calls the 'first island chain', a network of US-allied states - also encompassing Japan and the Philippines, both of which host US troops - which right now blocks the PLA from projecting into the Pacific.

Without taking Taiwan, the CCP can kiss goodbye to its long-established aim of matching and surpassing US geopolitical dominance. If Beijing cannot even dominate its own backyard it has no hope of rivalling US power.

This comes as got a new Prime Minister in recent weeks, one even more amenable to working closely with Tokyo's old frenemy, .

The thawing of ties between Seoul and Tokyo emphasises that the longer China waits on Taiwan, the more its window of opportunity closes. That is before getting to the fact China's regional rivals - and the US - have longer to get their weapons stockpiles up.

For CCP leader, Xi Jinping, 2027 is a key date. That November will be the moment of the party's next Congress. At that point he surely has to have something concrete to say over Taiwan.

Having marched the Chinese people to the top of the hill over Taiwan, neither Xi nor the CCP can afford to march them back down again, not without an enormous loss of face.

Worryingly, the Chinese economy appears to be stuck in the doldrums. If the prospect of China exporting its deflation - which could theoretically help Western consumers but damage Western companies - was the biggest risk, that would be one thing.

Indeed, weaker than expected consumer and factory prices catalysed calls for Beijing to deliver a bigger stimulus package for its spluttering economy. No doubt the US election - and the prospect of more tariffs - is weighing on China as well.

One of the few things, however, which might hold China back from attacking Taiwan is the risk to its own economy. If, however, that economy is already struggling - and the Chinese people restless because of this - then the risks associated with war diminish.

Moreover, a conflict could be used not only to distract the Chinese people but to mop up youth unemployment, especially among young men, whose lack of job prospects is an ongoing issue in the country.

There is no indication this is imminent. No doubt ample warning would be given of a Chinese move on Taiwan, not least a huge troop build-up needed to mount any invasion or blockade.

Still, it can be no accident that China is hoarding so much grain, reforming its military recruitment, building missile siloes, and securing oil access. If this isn't preparation for war then what exactly is it?

China could also launch hybrid tactics - including drills like the ones this week to grind down Taiwan's defences - to soften up the island democracy for a later invasion.

Yes, any invasion or even blockade comes with risks given how tough a stretch of water the Taiwan Strait is to cross, as well as the lack of suitable landing sites in Taiwan, its mountainous terrain and the likelihood of urban warfare.

Still, China has the industrial edge which the US had in World War II, as well as the advantage of proximity, and that is before considering the prospect of a blockade choking Taiwan to death before a full-scale invasion or US troops can intervene.

True, Taiwan is a prize for the CCP because of its all-important microchips, as well as offering Beijing the chance to settle a score from the Chinese Civil War. But smashing through the first island chain is what this is really all about.

For the US, the stakes then become just as high. Despite ongoing 'strategic ambiguity' there isn't a cat's chance in hell the US can sit back and allow the CCP to take over Taiwan and start to push the US Navy out of the region.

Aside from destroying US credibility and power regionally, such a move could even impact the US dollar - upon which so much American prosperity depends - since the dollar's dominance in part depends on the US Navy's role as guarantor of the sea lanes.

One of the few things which could give Xi and the CCP pause for thought is the economic risk to China. But if China's economic problems persist then the incentive to avoid war diminishes and the willingness to close the deal on Taiwan goes way up.

Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon might be knocking Taiwan off the news agenda right now, but - make no mistake - the risk of war is growing, and that is before China's ongoing maritime dispute with the Philippines is accounted for.

This week's drills were expected but, given the animosity between Lai and Xi, as well as the ongoing problems within China's economy, the world can ill afford to ignore the chances of war and all the destruction it would bring.