How Donald Trump defied the polls and his critics to win back US presidency

Taking the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, earlier this morning, Donald Trump gave a victory speech celebrating his return to the White House after the greatest comeback in American political history - even before all the votes had been counted to confirm his election as the 47th president of the United States.

Displaying the bravado, arrogance, narcissism and sheer chutzpah that have become his trademarks, Trump seized the crown of victory like a conquering Medieval monarch on a bloody battlefield. Which in a way, he is.

"America's future will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than it has ever been before," he promised the cheering throng with his trademark grandiosity.

At the advanced age of 78, Donald J Trump has proved that he is more than a business mogul. More than a politician. He is a phenomenon.

He has defied his critics and opponents, prosecutors and courts, and legions of political pundits and pollsters who swore that the presidential election race against Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, aged 60, was too close to call.

How wrong could they be?

Trump defied all democratic norms with crude words and illegal acts, two impeachments and a felony conviction that would have spelled doom for any other politician, yet were forgiven by Trump's loyal legions determined to Make America Great Again (MAGA).

Only four years ago it seemed that his political career was over when he refused to accept that he had lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden - Trump still insists he won - and provoked the bloody insurrection that stormed the Capitol building on January 6, 2021.

"That would have been disqualifying for any other politician," says a former White House aide. "But Trump bounced back, kept his core MAGA supporters, and slowly won over Republican senators and congressmen until he came to embody the Republican Party. He remade the party in his image."

But Trump, an accomplished former reality TV star who supposedly knows the art of the deal, proved himself a masterful magician as well.

Despite his fortune estimated at more than £2billion - boosted by his social media website Truth Social, his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate and gold-trimmed New York penthouse - Trump portrays himself as a man of the people. And the people, embracing him as one of them, have spoken at the ballot box.

"I know he's a terrible human being," a friend and avid Trump supporter told me in Los Angeles last week. "I know he's crude, rude and obnoxious. But he can fix America. He's good at the things that matter: the economy, and immigration."

Those were the two lynchpins of Trump's 2024 campaign, resonating with voters who didn't care to hear TV pundits tell them that America's economy is one of the best in the world.

"I don't care that we're better off than Britain or Greece," said my Trump friend. "I only know that the price of eggs and bacon at the supermarket are outrageous."

Economists blame global forces and the aftermath of the pandemic for the wage squeeze, but Trump pointed the finger at immigrants, especially those in the country illegally. He branded them "vermin" who are "poisoning the blood of our country," and promised to incarcerate and deport up to 10 million of them if elected.

It hardly mattered that economists - reviled as "elites" by Trump - claim this will cost America trillions and cripple the farming and construction industries that rely on immigrant labour. With deft sleight of hand Trump's wizardry convinced supporters he was right.

But how did hundreds of election polls get it so wrong? "Election polls are increasingly useless," wrote The Hollywood Reporter. "Can we get rid of them?"

Nate Silver, one of America's most trusted election pollsters, confessed: "I kind of trust pollsters less," and accused most of "cheating" by fudging their numbers to compensate for previous polls where they underestimated Republican voters.

"Trump supporters often have a lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey," said Silver.

Myriad polls had called the presidential race "too close to call," declaring either candidate the likely winner by razor-thin margins.

The New York Times predicted it would be days before the votes were counted, recounted, and possibly litigated in the courts for weeks to come. Yet within hours of the last polling station closing, Trump was able to declare himself the winner. He did it by conjuring up an unlikely coalition that no Republican candidate has managed before.

Women were expected to desert Trump after the Supreme Court justices he appointed had demolished abortion rights, yet he actually won more women's votes than he had against Biden four years earlier. He made unexpected gains among white college-educated voters, and stomped Harris by 31 points among white non-college-educated voters.

Most decisive in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, he won over Hispanic men with a ten point advantage over Harris, having previously lost them to Biden by 23 points. And he cut the Democrats' lead among black voters by nine per cent, winning 20 per cent of black men. He even won ten per cent of the voters who confessed they did not like him.

Many voters were reluctant, or perhaps ashamed, to tell pollsters that they planned to favour Trump, who benefitted from an army of "secret voters" who dared not tell anyone they were voting for him. "I secretly went with my neighbour and voted Republican, but we won't tell any of our liberal friends," revealed a Georgia father of three.

A black Georgia university student raised as a Democrat admitted: "I'm really torn, but I think it's Trump. I want to have a chance at getting a job when I graduate."

Trump won the key state, having lost it to Biden in 2020.

Harris had focused her campaign on abortion, and saving democracy from Trump's tyranny. But abortion proved to come behind the economy and immigration among voter priorities. Surprisingly, Trump even won among voters who considered democracy "very threatened".

On stage yesterday (Wed), celebrating his triumph hours before he finally won the required votes, Trump was joined by his five children, their various spouses, and his third wife Melania. The former model had endured Trump's conviction for using campaign funds to pay hush money to a porn star, and saw him found liable for sexual assault.

Reportedly, she agreed to stay married through Trump's first four years in the Oval Office only after renegotiating a lucrative trust fund for her son Barron, 18.

Who knows what deal she might have extracted from Trump to be by his side yesterday?

Humility has never been Trump's strong suit - a trait many of his followers admire - and was absent yesterday (Wed) as he spoke of the failed assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally in July. "Many people have told me that God spared me for a reason, and that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness," the man of the people said to thunderous applause. "And now we are going to fulfil that mission."

Perhaps ominously, he has promised that mission will include becoming a dictator on his first day in office - January 20, 2025 - and could cause headaches for the UK.

Espousing an "America First" isolationism, Trump has threatened to impose hefty tariffs and taxes on US imports, hurting British exporters, has threatened to withdraw from Nato, and to halt US military aid to Ukraine. A grand master at contorting the truth into whatever shape best suits him, Trump offered a brief, uncharacteristic moment of conciliation.

After months condemning Harris as "scum" and branding America a "trash can country," Trump yesterday (Wed) positioned himself as the nation's great unifier.

"It's time to put divisions of the past four years behind us," he said. "It's time to unite."

The applause at Trump's victory party could be heard all the way to Washington, D.C., where Kamala Harris cancelled her own celebration, and wondered how Trump had stolen her best line, and won the election.