Keir Starmer's honeymoon is well and truly dead - and this one stat proves it

To say the first few months of Sir Keir Starmer's government have been something of an omnishambles would be an understatement. This is a period most new governments enjoy as a 'honeymoon'.

Instead, polling suggests voters already think the previous (and wildly unpopular) Tory government was preferable.

Such polling shouldn't have been identified until at least 6 months - if not years - into the new government. Happening within 100 days is a calamity.

So, the removal - or reshuffling - of chief of staff Sue Gray must be seen in that context. In her place comes former chief of staff and head of political strategy Morgan McSweeney, who reports suggest had been at loggerheads with Gray.

At one level, this could be seen as part of a wider battle between a male-heavy support base around McSweeney against Gray and many of her female allies in cabinet, something Labour would deny.

On the other, it can be seen as a way to bring back the slickness of the election campaign against what many had come to see as a dreadful comms strategy in government, not least over 'freebie-gate'.

Briefing about Gray's whopping salary - bigger than the Prime Minister's - suggests the knives were already out for her. To minimise the embarrassment, she becomes Sir Keir's envoy for nations and regions.

The Labour leader - often derided for his colourless and floundering style - has shown a certain decisiveness, evidenced also three years again when he also shook up his top team, when his then-director of communications stood down.

Amid the prospect of a gloomy budget, criticism of the recent Chagos Islands giveaway (itself set to get voted on in Parliament, paving the way for a potential humiliating climbdown), and a have-your-cake-and-eat-it approach to both Israel and the EU, the PM really needs to get his government's act together if he is to face down his terrible polling.

So far, Sir Keir has benefitted from the fact the Tories have been essentially leaderless and rudderless. That changes in a few weeks when a new leader gets picked and the Conservatives have a chance to get back on track. The PM knows the Tories don't have to be brilliant, only to appear less terrible than Labour, which right now sets quite an achievable bar.

Then there is the Farage factor. With Reform UK breathing down Labour's necks across post-industrial seats in the North and Midlands, Sir Keir has a balancing act when it comes to migration and Europe. He needs to keep these voters on side without alienating his metropolitan, young and multiethnic base in the cities.

Gray's removal must be seen in the wider context of a leader acutely aware of the choppy waters ahead. His outgoing chief of staff had become the story and that was the last thing the PM needed. He is fast running out of time before the Tories get a new leader and perhaps a renewed sense of purpose.

There is also only so long he can prevaricate over Europe before his own people get restless, never mind how Rachel Reeves and he must bat away the accusation they are aping the Tories with austerity-lite policies. 100 days in and Sir Keir needed to get a grip. Gray's departure is designed to signal that even if it meant the leakers in Labour's midst won.

With his honeymoon well and truly over, the Labour leader now faces an even bigger test - selling his brand of bitter medicine to an already-sceptical British public who increasingly feel they were subject to a bait-and-switch with this new and increasingly unpopular Labour administration.