NEW DELHI: Upending all exit poll predictions, the BJP has managed to pull off a historic hat-trick in Haryana with the party leading in around 48 seats in the 90-seat assembly, as per Election Commission data at 3pm. The Congress is leading on around 36 seats.
This victory is particularly noteworthy given the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment and various challenges faced by the party. The impact of this result is likely to be felt in poll-bound states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and is likely to affect political dynamics in the Congress vis-a-vis Rahul Gandhi.
The BJP's success in Haryana can be attributed to several strategic factors:
Leadership change
The BJP made a significant strategic shift earlier this year by appointing Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister of Haryana, replacing the incumbent Manohar Lal Khattar . This decision was primarily aimed at revitalising the party's image and addressing public grievances ahead of the crucial 2024 elections. Saini's leadership style has been perceived as more responsive to local issues, which has resonated positively with voters.
His appointment as CM came at a critical time, just months before the assembly elections, indicating the BJP's intent to counteract a decade of anti-incumbency sentiment associated with Khattar's administration.
Focus on local issues
The BJP campaigned heavily on a platform of good governance, merit-based job opportunities, and welfare schemes for farmers. This focus helped to counteract some of the discontent over issues such as unemployment and inflation that had been raised by the opposition.
Additionally, CM Saini, during his brief tenure of approximately 200 days, implemented several initiatives that garnered public support. Notably, he increased the expenditure limit for gram panchayats significantly and launched a subsidy scheme for solar energy aimed at economically disadvantaged families.
Caste dynamics/candidate selection
The BJP effectively navigated Haryana's complex caste equations, securing support from various communities that are traditionally influential in state politics.
This strategic outreach was critical in consolidating votes across different demographics.
The BJP focused on appealing to non-Jat communities, which constitute a substantial portion of Haryana's electorate. The party's candidate selection emphasised OBC and upper-caste representation, with CM Saini, an OBC leader, at the forefront of their campaign.
By reducing the number of Jat candidates and increasing those from upper-caste backgrounds, the BJP consolidated its traditional support base while simultaneously attracting OBC voters.
The parole to Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh just three days before the state elections may have also played a small role in BJP's success.
The Dera Sacha Sauda sect commands a substantial following among economically backward and non-Jat communities in Haryana. This demographic has proved to be crucial for electoral success in the state.
Infighting in Congress/opposition in disarray
While the Congress aimed for a comeback after a decade in opposition, its efforts were hampered by internal divisions and the presence of regional parties like the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which diluted the anti-BJP vote.
AAP's entry into the fray also split the vote in many seats, giving advantage to the BJP.
The Congress faced challenges in forming a coalition with AAP, which sought to contest a substantial number of seats. Negotiations faltered over seat-sharing, with AAP demanding more representation than Congress was willing to concede. This discord led AAP to prepare for a solo campaign, potentially siphoning off votes from Congress in key constituencies.
The Congress party's performance was also significantly influenced by internal dynamics, particularly the leadership tussle between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Dalit leader Kumari Selja.
Hooda, a veteran leader and former CM, had a substantial impact on the Congress's campaign strategy. His focus on mobilizing the Jat community, which constitutes a significant portion of Haryana's electorate, was intended to counter the ruling BJP. However, this strategy appears to have backfired, as it alienated other crucial voter segments, particularly Dalits and non-Jats. Reports indicate that Hooda's dominance in candidate selection led to the marginalisation of Selja's supporters, which weakened the party's overall appeal.
The combination of Hooda's over-reliance on Jat votes and Selja's disengagement likely resulted in a fragmented voter base for Congress.
This victory is particularly noteworthy given the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment and various challenges faced by the party. The impact of this result is likely to be felt in poll-bound states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and is likely to affect political dynamics in the Congress vis-a-vis Rahul Gandhi.
The BJP's success in Haryana can be attributed to several strategic factors:
Leadership change
The BJP made a significant strategic shift earlier this year by appointing Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister of Haryana, replacing the incumbent Manohar Lal Khattar . This decision was primarily aimed at revitalising the party's image and addressing public grievances ahead of the crucial 2024 elections. Saini's leadership style has been perceived as more responsive to local issues, which has resonated positively with voters.
His appointment as CM came at a critical time, just months before the assembly elections, indicating the BJP's intent to counteract a decade of anti-incumbency sentiment associated with Khattar's administration.
Focus on local issues
The BJP campaigned heavily on a platform of good governance, merit-based job opportunities, and welfare schemes for farmers. This focus helped to counteract some of the discontent over issues such as unemployment and inflation that had been raised by the opposition.
Additionally, CM Saini, during his brief tenure of approximately 200 days, implemented several initiatives that garnered public support. Notably, he increased the expenditure limit for gram panchayats significantly and launched a subsidy scheme for solar energy aimed at economically disadvantaged families.
Caste dynamics/candidate selection
The BJP effectively navigated Haryana's complex caste equations, securing support from various communities that are traditionally influential in state politics.
This strategic outreach was critical in consolidating votes across different demographics.
The BJP focused on appealing to non-Jat communities, which constitute a substantial portion of Haryana's electorate. The party's candidate selection emphasised OBC and upper-caste representation, with CM Saini, an OBC leader, at the forefront of their campaign.
By reducing the number of Jat candidates and increasing those from upper-caste backgrounds, the BJP consolidated its traditional support base while simultaneously attracting OBC voters.
The parole to Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh just three days before the state elections may have also played a small role in BJP's success.
The Dera Sacha Sauda sect commands a substantial following among economically backward and non-Jat communities in Haryana. This demographic has proved to be crucial for electoral success in the state.
Infighting in Congress/opposition in disarray
While the Congress aimed for a comeback after a decade in opposition, its efforts were hampered by internal divisions and the presence of regional parties like the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which diluted the anti-BJP vote.
AAP's entry into the fray also split the vote in many seats, giving advantage to the BJP.
The Congress faced challenges in forming a coalition with AAP, which sought to contest a substantial number of seats. Negotiations faltered over seat-sharing, with AAP demanding more representation than Congress was willing to concede. This discord led AAP to prepare for a solo campaign, potentially siphoning off votes from Congress in key constituencies.
The Congress party's performance was also significantly influenced by internal dynamics, particularly the leadership tussle between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Dalit leader Kumari Selja.
Hooda, a veteran leader and former CM, had a substantial impact on the Congress's campaign strategy. His focus on mobilizing the Jat community, which constitutes a significant portion of Haryana's electorate, was intended to counter the ruling BJP. However, this strategy appears to have backfired, as it alienated other crucial voter segments, particularly Dalits and non-Jats. Reports indicate that Hooda's dominance in candidate selection led to the marginalisation of Selja's supporters, which weakened the party's overall appeal.
The combination of Hooda's over-reliance on Jat votes and Selja's disengagement likely resulted in a fragmented voter base for Congress.
