NEW DELHI: The four-month monsoon season is most likely to end recording ‘above normal’ rainfall over the country as a whole on Sept 30. But, its spatial distribution this year presented a unique variation with Rajasthan , generally a rain-starved state, so far, receiving 56% more than its 'normal' rainfall while four northeastern states, Bihar, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and J&K reporting a huge deficit.
Interestingly, west Rajasthan, a large part of which is arid, has, so far, received 72% more than normal rainfall, whereas east Rajasthan got 46% above normal cumulative rainfall (June 1-Sept 25). Overall, the country received 5.4% more than normal rainfall till Wednesday with five more days to go for the culmination of the rainy season.
Though Rajasthan has consistently been showing an increasing trend in quantitative rainfall for the past few years, such a huge variation this year, where the state reported 672.1 mm of cumulative rainfall compared to its normal of 430.6 mm, is something that has caught meteorologists' attention.
Experts don’t rule out gradual change in the spatial distribution and quantitative variation in rainfall over the country as a whole due to climate change in the long run but good rain in Rajasthan this year is attributed to natural variability of the complex weather system .
"There has been increasing rainfall trends over Rajasthan. It could be related to more westward movement of low pressure systems to the state. It could be part of natural variability and may not be attributed to climate change. Interestingly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models suggest more rains over Rajasthan and deserts in the future," Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES), told TOI.
Noting that good rains in Rajasthan this year is "not an aberration at all", K J Ramesh, former IMD director general, said, "Rajasthan has clearly an established increasing trend of rainfall since 2000. Excessive moisture loading from Arabian Sea on to Gujarat and Rajasthan in recent decades could be the reason."
In 2020, an MoES report on 'Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes' that analysed the rainfall pattern over all states/UTs, based on 30 years of data (1989-2018), flagged that seven states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Nagaland - have shown "significant decreasing trends" in annual rainfall.
Interestingly, west Rajasthan, a large part of which is arid, has, so far, received 72% more than normal rainfall, whereas east Rajasthan got 46% above normal cumulative rainfall (June 1-Sept 25). Overall, the country received 5.4% more than normal rainfall till Wednesday with five more days to go for the culmination of the rainy season.
Though Rajasthan has consistently been showing an increasing trend in quantitative rainfall for the past few years, such a huge variation this year, where the state reported 672.1 mm of cumulative rainfall compared to its normal of 430.6 mm, is something that has caught meteorologists' attention.
Experts don’t rule out gradual change in the spatial distribution and quantitative variation in rainfall over the country as a whole due to climate change in the long run but good rain in Rajasthan this year is attributed to natural variability of the complex weather system .
"There has been increasing rainfall trends over Rajasthan. It could be related to more westward movement of low pressure systems to the state. It could be part of natural variability and may not be attributed to climate change. Interestingly, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models suggest more rains over Rajasthan and deserts in the future," Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES), told TOI.
Noting that good rains in Rajasthan this year is "not an aberration at all", K J Ramesh, former IMD director general, said, "Rajasthan has clearly an established increasing trend of rainfall since 2000. Excessive moisture loading from Arabian Sea on to Gujarat and Rajasthan in recent decades could be the reason."
In 2020, an MoES report on 'Observed Rainfall Variability and Changes' that analysed the rainfall pattern over all states/UTs, based on 30 years of data (1989-2018), flagged that seven states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Nagaland - have shown "significant decreasing trends" in annual rainfall.
