SRINAGAR: PM Modi's "Naya Kashmir " turned out to be so yesterday on Tuesday.
The National Conference-Congress alliance, flagging the fear of BJP in the wake of the revocation of special status and downgrading of J&K as UT, swept the Kashmir region. Despite Congress 's failure to damage BJP in Jammu in the face of the latter's overwhelming campaign which included the push for "Dogra CM", J&K delivered a verdict that is bound to sound warning bells in the Delhi establishment. NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah called the results a "people's rejection of the decisions of Aug 5, 2019".
That BJP became the bogeyman of the election is spotlighted by two facts. While PDP was punished for its 2014-18 alliance govt with BJP, that was followed by the abrogation of Article 370 , the much-touted "X-factors" - Engineer Rashid, Apni Party, DPAP of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Independents - were swept away amid avalanche of allegations of being "Delhi's fronts" sent to divide the votes of the mainstream parties to later emerge as pillars of a BJP govt. Engineer's Awami Ittehad Party failed even in Baramulla that he won in Lok Sabha elections from prison. The clear verdict also puts the INDIA alliance beyond the fear of "five nominated MLAs", a major row that erupted ahead of the results.
Omar Abdullah's decision to junk PDP after being part of the post-370 Gupkar Alliance was vindicated, having already defeated PDP in the Lok Sabha polls in June. Now, PDP is staring at an existential crisis.
The return of NC restores the salience of Sheikh Abdullah family in J&K politics, which came to battle a two-front challenge over last two decades - while emergence of PDP erected a rival in Kashmir and Jammu regions both, the post-2014 BJP fragmented the state into parallel political entities and established its dominance in the Hindu pockets of Jammu. The twin developments majorly diminished the space for NC.
Evidently, BJP started the 2024 assembly elections with a special strategy. Convinced of its hold over Jammu, it took a leap of faith by creating "proxies" in Kashmir to fill the future numbers gap. The "proxies" came at the cost of PDP which haemorrhaged its leadership structure, losing 43 important faces by a calculation. First to go was Altaf Bukhari who launched Apni Party, and when he was seen floundering came the exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad from Congress who formed DPAP. Both faced charges of being BJP's fronts. But when they failed to live up to their initial promise, the victory of Engineer over Omar in LS polls threw up a new and more viable option for BJP. To the shock of all, he secured bail to campaign, reinforcing the "proxy" charge. In the end, they all came a cropper.
BJP's 29 seats mark a decent tally but impresses its continued ghettoisation in Jammu, with signs of stagnation. It is a disappointment for its strategy to win over Muslim communities with reservation for Paharis, to expand its footprint.
While the results now pose a problem for NC which would need some Hindu faces to join the govt, a predicament which supposedly saw late Mufti Mohd Sayeed to strike an alliance with BJP in 2014, the Abdullahs are unlikely to go down the PDP road. But the greater dilemma will be for BJP which has seen junking of the special status has not gone down well in Kashmir, even as it does not animate Jammu so much.
The mandate is clearly a rewind to the old days of Jammu & Kashmir, sans 370.
The National Conference-Congress alliance, flagging the fear of BJP in the wake of the revocation of special status and downgrading of J&K as UT, swept the Kashmir region. Despite Congress 's failure to damage BJP in Jammu in the face of the latter's overwhelming campaign which included the push for "Dogra CM", J&K delivered a verdict that is bound to sound warning bells in the Delhi establishment. NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah called the results a "people's rejection of the decisions of Aug 5, 2019".
That BJP became the bogeyman of the election is spotlighted by two facts. While PDP was punished for its 2014-18 alliance govt with BJP, that was followed by the abrogation of Article 370 , the much-touted "X-factors" - Engineer Rashid, Apni Party, DPAP of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Independents - were swept away amid avalanche of allegations of being "Delhi's fronts" sent to divide the votes of the mainstream parties to later emerge as pillars of a BJP govt. Engineer's Awami Ittehad Party failed even in Baramulla that he won in Lok Sabha elections from prison. The clear verdict also puts the INDIA alliance beyond the fear of "five nominated MLAs", a major row that erupted ahead of the results.
Omar Abdullah's decision to junk PDP after being part of the post-370 Gupkar Alliance was vindicated, having already defeated PDP in the Lok Sabha polls in June. Now, PDP is staring at an existential crisis.
The return of NC restores the salience of Sheikh Abdullah family in J&K politics, which came to battle a two-front challenge over last two decades - while emergence of PDP erected a rival in Kashmir and Jammu regions both, the post-2014 BJP fragmented the state into parallel political entities and established its dominance in the Hindu pockets of Jammu. The twin developments majorly diminished the space for NC.
Evidently, BJP started the 2024 assembly elections with a special strategy. Convinced of its hold over Jammu, it took a leap of faith by creating "proxies" in Kashmir to fill the future numbers gap. The "proxies" came at the cost of PDP which haemorrhaged its leadership structure, losing 43 important faces by a calculation. First to go was Altaf Bukhari who launched Apni Party, and when he was seen floundering came the exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad from Congress who formed DPAP. Both faced charges of being BJP's fronts. But when they failed to live up to their initial promise, the victory of Engineer over Omar in LS polls threw up a new and more viable option for BJP. To the shock of all, he secured bail to campaign, reinforcing the "proxy" charge. In the end, they all came a cropper.
BJP's 29 seats mark a decent tally but impresses its continued ghettoisation in Jammu, with signs of stagnation. It is a disappointment for its strategy to win over Muslim communities with reservation for Paharis, to expand its footprint.
While the results now pose a problem for NC which would need some Hindu faces to join the govt, a predicament which supposedly saw late Mufti Mohd Sayeed to strike an alliance with BJP in 2014, the Abdullahs are unlikely to go down the PDP road. But the greater dilemma will be for BJP which has seen junking of the special status has not gone down well in Kashmir, even as it does not animate Jammu so much.
The mandate is clearly a rewind to the old days of Jammu & Kashmir, sans 370.
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