What if India followed US election system: What would 2014, 2019 and 2024 results look like?

In the United States, the Electoral College system plays a pivotal role in presidential elections. Each state is allocated a specific number of electoral votes based on its population, and most states follow a winner-takes-all approach, where the candidate with the majority vote secures all of the state's electoral votes. This system means that winning populous states like California, Texas, and Florida is crucial for a candidate's success. For instance, California, with its 55 electoral votes—the highest of any state—has been a significant factor in determining election outcomes.

Imagine if India, with its diverse and populous states, adopted a similar Electoral College system for its general elections. How would key states like Uttar Pradesh , Maharashtra, and West Bengal, known for their significant populations, impact the results? In such a model, securing the majority vote in a few large states could potentially change the entire outcome, making India’s federal elections more strategic and less about direct popular support. With that in mind, let’s explore what India’s 2014, 2019, and 2024 elections might look like if they were held under an Electoral College system similar to that of the US.

Understanding the Electoral College System

The US Electoral College is a unique voting mechanism used to elect the President. Each state is assigned a specific number of electoral votes based on its population size, with larger states receiving more votes. In nearly every state, the candidate who wins the majority of votes claims all the electoral votes for that state—a “winner-takes-all” approach. To win the presidency, a candidate needs to secure more than half of the total 538 electoral votes nationally. This system prioritises victories in populous and diverse states, as winning these larger prizes is essential for an overall majority.

India’s Current System: First Past the Post

India’s electoral process for the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament) follows the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. In each constituency, the candidate who receives the most votes wins a seat, regardless of the percentage of total votes. The party or coalition that wins the majority of Lok Sabha seats forms the government. Unlike the US, every individual vote counts towards a single national result, often allowing one party or coalition to gain dominance with only a plurality, rather than an absolute majority, of the popular vote.

Methodology: Re-imagining 2014, 2019, and 2024 under an Electoral College

To estimate India’s election results under an Electoral College model, we assigned each state a number of “electoral votes” equivalent to its Lok Sabha seats, as they are already based on state populations. This produced a total of 543 electoral votes. For simplicity, states were categorized as either going to the NDA (BJP-led coalition) or to the opposition based on the highest vote share. Here, the NDA would receive all of a state’s electoral votes if it held the majority of the vote share there, and all other votes would go to the “Others” category, representing opposition alliances and regional parties.

Hypothetical 2014, 2019, and 2024 Electoral College Results


2014 General Election
In the actual 2014 election, the NDA led by BJP swept the country, winning 336 of the 543 seats. Under an Electoral College system:

NDA (BJP and allies): 337 electoral votes
Others: 182 electoral votes

The winner-takes-all system would have amplified the NDA’s victory, giving it a higher electoral total than under FPTP due to its dominance in populous states.

2019 General Election
In 2019, the NDA further solidified its position, winning 353 seats. Under an Electoral College model:

NDA: 355 electoral votes
Others: 164 electoral votes
The electoral vote outcome would again favor the NDA significantly. The swing in NDA's favor in key states would secure it a majority, increasing its winning margin relative to the FPTP model.

2024 General Election
In 2024, the NDA secured 293 seats, while the opposition alliance INDIA won 234 seats. Under an Electoral College system:

NDA: 342 electoral votes
Others: 177 electoral votes

Despite a reduced seat count compared to 2019, the NDA would still maintain a majority in the Electoral College, highlighting the impact of winning populous states under this system.

What if BJP fought alone?

Here’s a breakdown of how this might look:

2014 General Election
BJP won 282 seats on its own. In an Electoral College model, BJP would win the entire set of electoral votes from each state where it had the majority vote share in 2014.

BJP Electoral Votes Estimate: Approximately 312 electoral votes

2019 General Election
BJP increased its solo count to 303 seats. Under the Electoral College model, it would likely secure the majority vote in several key populous states, especially those it carried comfortably in 2019.

BJP Electoral Votes Estimate: Approximately 325 electoral votes

2024 General Election

With BJP winning 260 seats on its own, some populous states might still go to the BJP due to its coalition, even if it lost some solo ground. However, the reduced solo seat count would reflect a tighter margin in key states.

BJP Electoral Votes Estimate: Approximately 300 electoral votes

These estimates assume that BJP secured majority support in key populous states in each respective year. The hypothetical model suggests that the Electoral College system would still amplify BJP’s wins in populous states, translating to a higher electoral vote count compared to their Lok Sabha seats, particularly in 2014 and 2019.

What if it was BJP vs everyone else?

If all opposition votes were consolidated against BJP in a US-style Electoral College model, the election results would be notably different, especially in 2014, 2019, and 2024. In 2014, BJP would secure approximately 270 electoral votes, while the consolidated opposition would win around 273, narrowly flipping the majority to the opposition. In 2019, BJP would still win a majority with approximately 285 electoral votes to the opposition’s 258, though by a slimmer margin than in the actual FPTP system. By 2024, however, a unified opposition would clearly prevail, with around 293 electoral votes to BJP’s 250. This scenario illustrates how a consolidated opposition could effectively challenge BJP’s dominance, especially in more closely contested election years.


Challenges and Limitations of an Electoral College for India
While the Electoral College model might provide new insights, it poses several challenges if applied to India:

Disproportionate Representation: Like the US, an Electoral College could overrepresent populous states, making regional powerhouses less influential. This might disadvantage smaller states and potentially overlook regional diversity in representation.

Winner-Takes-All System Risks: This approach could lead to substantial disenfranchisement of votes in states where parties lose narrowly. It would discount the voices of voters who supported other parties but lost by a small margin, potentially reducing faith in the electoral process.

Encourages Strategic Targeting: Candidates may focus their resources on high-electoral states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra , neglecting the needs and voices of smaller or less populated regions. This focus could lead to uneven development and political emphasis across states.

Potential for Electoral College Deadlock: With a multiparty system and strong regional alliances, India could face a higher likelihood of electoral deadlocks. In the US, the two-party system streamlines the Electoral College outcome, whereas India’s coalition-based structure would make the process far more complicated and potentially lead to drawn-out election results.

Though intriguing as a theoretical exercise, an Electoral College in India would likely lead to challenges in maintaining equitable representation across the country. It might benefit large coalitions but would risk undermining regional voices. By examining the 2014, 2019, and 2024 elections through this lens, it’s clear that the current FPTP system, despite its imperfections, aligns more closely with India’s federal structure and pluralistic society.