After a short break, we are back with the latest edition of My Take 5, your weekly dose of comprehensive analyses of hot-button international news from around the world. Sri Lanka got a new president, the Quad is increasingly looking like a security alliance, Israel and Hezbollah are hurtling towards all-out war, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in the US with a “Victory Plan”. So let’s get to it.
Unprecedented Lankan elections: Presidential elections in Sri Lanka threw up a big surprise, handing victory to Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake . The latter defeated sitting President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa – the two top contenders – apart from Rajapaksa family scion Namal Rajapaksa. Wickremesinghe had led Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and had pulled the country out of the mess it had found itself in 2022. This, many believed, was enough to see him win the polls. However, that wasn’t to be. Moreover, this was the first time that Lankan presidential polls went to a second round of counting of preferential votes after no candidate secured the 50% mark in the first round. It was here that Dissanayake emerged winner.
Dissanayake, known for his clean image, had campaigned as an outsider promising to cleanse Sri Lanka of corrupt, elite politics. In that sense, he emerged as the biggest beneficiary of Sri Lanka’s 2022 Aragalaya protests that were sparked by economic woes but ultimately targeted elite politicians for corruption, nepotism and bringing the country to its economic low. Dissanayake’s JVP party helped catalyse some of those protests. But now that he is in government, it remains to be seen how he takes forward the country’s economic recovery. Dissanayake has promised to reduce the burden on lower economic segments of Lankan society. That won’t be easy given Colombo’s deal with IMF and economic restructuring.
Plus, it remains to be seen how he approaches contentious issues like implementation of the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s Constitution that calls for devolution of powers to provincial councils. In the past, JVP had opposed devolution. It had even said that it won’t investigate human rights violations during Sri Lanka’s civil war against Tamil separatists. Also, Dissanayake may review some of the bilateral development projects with India. All of these will test New Delhi-Colombo ties.
Israel-Hezbollah war heats up: It had been threatening for a while to erupt and it finally did. Last week saw unprecedented pager and walkie-talkie bombings in Lebanon that hit Hezbollah hard. That, as it turned out, was the opening salvo in Israel’s all-out attack against the Shia militant group. Tel Aviv has made the return of tens of thousands of Israelis to their homes in the country’s north a stated war goal. And they can’t return unless Hezbollah stops firing daily rockets into northern Israel. Ergo, the need to push Hezbollah back from the border. In fact, Tel Aviv now says that Hezbollah was planning to carry out a Hamas-style October 7 attack. Strange, given that this narrative didn’t emerge over the last 11 months.
Moreover, Hezbollah has maintained that it will cease firing rockets into northern Israel and return to status quo ante as soon as Israel stops its operation in Gaza. But Israeli PM Netanyahu doesn’t seem to want to wind down operations in the Palestinian enclave. There are two possible reasons for this. First, he hasn’t been able to finish off Hamas as he promised. And second, he needs to be in a perpetual state of war to survive politically. Of course, Hezbollah is no saint here. It would be emboldened if Israel calls it a day in Gaza, tacitly admitting defeat. That in turn would be problematic from Israel’s long-term security.
But escalation of the conflict in Lebanon has its own risks. Lebanon is a sovereign nation and Hezbollah is the lynchpin of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Tehran won’t just standby and allow Israel to decimate Hezbollah. But if Iran directly steps into the conflict, the conflict escalation matrix in West Asia may become uncontrollable. Netanyahu has dragged Israel into a dangerous game. Miscalculations will have huge repercussions for the world.
Quad stepping up: The latest in-person meeting of leaders of Quad nations – India, US, Japan and Australia – issued a joint declaration that moves the group forward in terms of evolving into a security alliance. The Washington Declaration condemned unilateral actions to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific – a not so oblique reference to China – slammed illicit missile launches, launched a Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative, proposed a Quad Ports of The Future Partnership for resilient port infrastructure, and, importantly, launched a Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) to enable partners in the region to monitor and secure their waters, enforce laws and deter unlawful behaviour.
In all, this means that the Quad is slowly but surely moving towards a quasi-security arrangement that can actually stand up for international rules in the Indo-Pacific. This is certainly needed. Given Chinese aggressive tactics in the region and growing naval dominance, someone has to stand up and enforce red lines against Beijing. Might is right cannot become the norm in the Indo-Pacific. And China today is threatening to convert the Indo-Pacific into a Chinese lake. Therefore, the Quad must lead the pushback.
Zelenskyy speaks at UNSC: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at the UNSC saying that Russia could not be talked into peace and must be forced to do so. He has been touting a ‘victory plan’ that he says will compel Russia to think about peace and serve as a bridge to the proposed second Peace Summit. While little is officially known about the victory plan, it is known that Zelenskyy has been asking his Western partners to allow the use of their long-range weapons to target Russian military facilities and supply lines within Russia. That would certainly have huge implications for the current battlefield situation.
Ukraine has already proved itself on the battlefield. Its Kursk operation took everyone by surprise. But it is still defending itself with one hand tied behind its back. Meanwhile, Russia is being aided by military supplies from Iran, China and North Korea. Therefore, it’s only logical for Ukraine’s partners to give Kyiv the ability to better defend itself. Towards this end, there must at least be coordination and willingness among Ukraine’s European Nato partners to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory to prevent the destruction they cause to Ukrainian lives and civilian infrastructure. A joint, iron-clad air defence for Ukraine will be a massive game changer and the easiest way to bolster Ukrainian capabilities to counter the Russian aggression. And that in turn could force Moscow to start thinking about the pointlessness of its efforts and give peace a chance.
Japan leadership and marital naming law: Japan’s LDP is electing a new leader and effectively the country's next PM tomorrow. While the candidates – all together nine of them – have similar positions on big ticket issues such as the threats from China and North Korea, an aging society, and a slowing economy, one issue that is differentiating them is their respective positions on Japan’s marital naming law that requires married couples to share a surname. The law dates back to the Meiji era and has been the subject of debate for long. Candidate Shinjiro Koizumi, the former environment minister who took a short paternity leave when his first child was born, has promised to overturn the law and allow married couples to retain separate surnames. But more conservative candidates like Sanae Takaichi has said the law should be preserved for family unity.
This is a vexed issue for Japan as it is interwoven with the country’s sharply declining birth rate and a patriarchal glass ceiling that prevents women from progressing in their careers beyond a point. Add to this an as yet conservative approach to immigration. Whoever is the next PM of Japan, the person will certainly have his or her hands full.
Unprecedented Lankan elections: Presidential elections in Sri Lanka threw up a big surprise, handing victory to Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake . The latter defeated sitting President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa – the two top contenders – apart from Rajapaksa family scion Namal Rajapaksa. Wickremesinghe had led Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and had pulled the country out of the mess it had found itself in 2022. This, many believed, was enough to see him win the polls. However, that wasn’t to be. Moreover, this was the first time that Lankan presidential polls went to a second round of counting of preferential votes after no candidate secured the 50% mark in the first round. It was here that Dissanayake emerged winner.
Dissanayake, known for his clean image, had campaigned as an outsider promising to cleanse Sri Lanka of corrupt, elite politics. In that sense, he emerged as the biggest beneficiary of Sri Lanka’s 2022 Aragalaya protests that were sparked by economic woes but ultimately targeted elite politicians for corruption, nepotism and bringing the country to its economic low. Dissanayake’s JVP party helped catalyse some of those protests. But now that he is in government, it remains to be seen how he takes forward the country’s economic recovery. Dissanayake has promised to reduce the burden on lower economic segments of Lankan society. That won’t be easy given Colombo’s deal with IMF and economic restructuring.
Plus, it remains to be seen how he approaches contentious issues like implementation of the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s Constitution that calls for devolution of powers to provincial councils. In the past, JVP had opposed devolution. It had even said that it won’t investigate human rights violations during Sri Lanka’s civil war against Tamil separatists. Also, Dissanayake may review some of the bilateral development projects with India. All of these will test New Delhi-Colombo ties.
Israel-Hezbollah war heats up: It had been threatening for a while to erupt and it finally did. Last week saw unprecedented pager and walkie-talkie bombings in Lebanon that hit Hezbollah hard. That, as it turned out, was the opening salvo in Israel’s all-out attack against the Shia militant group. Tel Aviv has made the return of tens of thousands of Israelis to their homes in the country’s north a stated war goal. And they can’t return unless Hezbollah stops firing daily rockets into northern Israel. Ergo, the need to push Hezbollah back from the border. In fact, Tel Aviv now says that Hezbollah was planning to carry out a Hamas-style October 7 attack. Strange, given that this narrative didn’t emerge over the last 11 months.
Moreover, Hezbollah has maintained that it will cease firing rockets into northern Israel and return to status quo ante as soon as Israel stops its operation in Gaza. But Israeli PM Netanyahu doesn’t seem to want to wind down operations in the Palestinian enclave. There are two possible reasons for this. First, he hasn’t been able to finish off Hamas as he promised. And second, he needs to be in a perpetual state of war to survive politically. Of course, Hezbollah is no saint here. It would be emboldened if Israel calls it a day in Gaza, tacitly admitting defeat. That in turn would be problematic from Israel’s long-term security.
But escalation of the conflict in Lebanon has its own risks. Lebanon is a sovereign nation and Hezbollah is the lynchpin of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Tehran won’t just standby and allow Israel to decimate Hezbollah. But if Iran directly steps into the conflict, the conflict escalation matrix in West Asia may become uncontrollable. Netanyahu has dragged Israel into a dangerous game. Miscalculations will have huge repercussions for the world.
Quad stepping up: The latest in-person meeting of leaders of Quad nations – India, US, Japan and Australia – issued a joint declaration that moves the group forward in terms of evolving into a security alliance. The Washington Declaration condemned unilateral actions to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific – a not so oblique reference to China – slammed illicit missile launches, launched a Quad Cancer Moonshot initiative, proposed a Quad Ports of The Future Partnership for resilient port infrastructure, and, importantly, launched a Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) to enable partners in the region to monitor and secure their waters, enforce laws and deter unlawful behaviour.
In all, this means that the Quad is slowly but surely moving towards a quasi-security arrangement that can actually stand up for international rules in the Indo-Pacific. This is certainly needed. Given Chinese aggressive tactics in the region and growing naval dominance, someone has to stand up and enforce red lines against Beijing. Might is right cannot become the norm in the Indo-Pacific. And China today is threatening to convert the Indo-Pacific into a Chinese lake. Therefore, the Quad must lead the pushback.
Zelenskyy speaks at UNSC: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at the UNSC saying that Russia could not be talked into peace and must be forced to do so. He has been touting a ‘victory plan’ that he says will compel Russia to think about peace and serve as a bridge to the proposed second Peace Summit. While little is officially known about the victory plan, it is known that Zelenskyy has been asking his Western partners to allow the use of their long-range weapons to target Russian military facilities and supply lines within Russia. That would certainly have huge implications for the current battlefield situation.
Ukraine has already proved itself on the battlefield. Its Kursk operation took everyone by surprise. But it is still defending itself with one hand tied behind its back. Meanwhile, Russia is being aided by military supplies from Iran, China and North Korea. Therefore, it’s only logical for Ukraine’s partners to give Kyiv the ability to better defend itself. Towards this end, there must at least be coordination and willingness among Ukraine’s European Nato partners to shoot down Russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory to prevent the destruction they cause to Ukrainian lives and civilian infrastructure. A joint, iron-clad air defence for Ukraine will be a massive game changer and the easiest way to bolster Ukrainian capabilities to counter the Russian aggression. And that in turn could force Moscow to start thinking about the pointlessness of its efforts and give peace a chance.
Japan leadership and marital naming law: Japan’s LDP is electing a new leader and effectively the country's next PM tomorrow. While the candidates – all together nine of them – have similar positions on big ticket issues such as the threats from China and North Korea, an aging society, and a slowing economy, one issue that is differentiating them is their respective positions on Japan’s marital naming law that requires married couples to share a surname. The law dates back to the Meiji era and has been the subject of debate for long. Candidate Shinjiro Koizumi, the former environment minister who took a short paternity leave when his first child was born, has promised to overturn the law and allow married couples to retain separate surnames. But more conservative candidates like Sanae Takaichi has said the law should be preserved for family unity.
This is a vexed issue for Japan as it is interwoven with the country’s sharply declining birth rate and a patriarchal glass ceiling that prevents women from progressing in their careers beyond a point. Add to this an as yet conservative approach to immigration. Whoever is the next PM of Japan, the person will certainly have his or her hands full.
