Hurricane Milton , currently a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph, is poised to slam into Florida's Gulf Coast. While it has already become one of the most intense hurricanes in recent years, what makes it particularly remarkable is its rapid intensification and the factors fueling its strength.
Scientists and meteorologists have been stunned by Milton’s behaviour, which has transformed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in a matter of days. The combination of unusually warm ocean waters, favourable atmospheric conditions, and the presence of a " marine heat wave " in the Gulf of Mexico has created the perfect storm.
The role of ocean heat and marine heat waves
Milton’s ferocity can largely be attributed to abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where surface waters have been experiencing what scientists call a "marine heat wave." This is a period of unusually high ocean temperatures, which provides a massive source of energy for storms. Hurricanes feed off warm water, and in Milton's case, the Gulf's surface temperatures have been breaking records.
Brian Dzwonkowski, an oceanographer at the University of South Alabama, told the Washington Post that “all summer long, different parts of the Gulf of Mexico have been in varying states of heat wave,” with deep warmth extending several hundred feet beneath the surface. This deep, warm water provides a seemingly unlimited amount of fuel for storms like Milton, allowing them to intensify rapidly. A marine heat wave is when ocean temperatures exceed normal levels for five consecutive days, and such heat spells have become more frequent and intense due to human-caused climate change .
Milton’s rapid transformation from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 within 24 hours can be directly linked to the extreme warmth in the Gulf. While hurricanes typically churn cooler waters from the depths, slowing their growth, the warm water in the Gulf is present at such depths that even as the storm stirs the ocean, it continues to draw energy from warmer water rising to the surface.
The loop current : Unlimited energy for hurricanes
The Gulf of Mexico’s infamous “loop current” has also played a significant role in intensifying hurricanes, including Milton. The loop current is a warm water current that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf, extending deep into the ocean and providing vast amounts of heat that hurricanes can tap into. This current creates a deeper-than-usual reservoir of warm water, which fuels hurricanes as they pass over it.
Nan Walker, an oceanographer at Louisiana State University, told WaPo that the loop current is usually "the warmest water in the Gulf at the surface and at depth." The current acts like a continuous supply of fuel, particularly for storms like Milton that are passing directly through this region of the Gulf. Hurricanes crossing over the loop current tend to intensify rapidly unless interrupted by unfavourable atmospheric conditions.
This deep warm water also helps prevent the typical cooling that hurricanes experience as they churn up colder water from below. Instead, Milton is drawing from a bottomless supply of warm water, keeping it strong and allowing it to intensify even as it moves closer to land.
Rapid intensification and atmospheric conditions
Milton's rapid intensification—a phenomenon where a storm’s wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours—has shocked meteorologists. John Morales, a prominent meteorologist, remarked that Milton’s evolution was “nothing short of legendary,” while Jennifer Francis called the storm’s sudden pressure drop "insane."
Milton’s sustained winds increased by a staggering 90 mph within 24 hours, making it one of the fastest-intensifying storms since 1979.
This rapid intensification is partly due to the marine heat wave, but favourable atmospheric conditions also played a critical role. Milton experienced low vertical wind shear, meaning there was little change in wind speed and direction with altitude.
Wind shear can often disrupt hurricanes, preventing them from gaining strength. In Milton’s case, the calm atmosphere allowed it to grow quickly and uninterrupted.
According to Soheil Radfar, a coastal hazards researcher at the University of Alabama, storms passing through marine heat waves are more likely to undergo rapid intensification. Radfar estimated that during marine heat waves, storms like Milton are 150 per cent more likely to intensify rapidly compared to similar conditions without a heat wave, the Washington Post report said. Milton’s intensification, combined with the low wind shear, made it an ideal candidate for explosive growth.
Perfect Storm: The future of hurricanes in a warming world
The record-breaking warmth in the Gulf of Mexico and the rapid intensification of storms like Milton are a clear sign of how climate change is affecting hurricane behaviour. Oceans absorb most of the excess heat from human activities, and this stored heat provides energy for storms, making them more powerful and dangerous.
Recent studies suggest that marine heat waves are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, doubling in number over the past four decades.
As ocean temperatures rise, the likelihood of supercharged hurricanes like Milton also increases. Marine heatwaves not only fuel stronger storms but also lead to more intense rainfall, as seen with both Hurricane Helene and Milton. Helene brought up to 30 inches of rain to parts of the southeastern US, and Milton is expected to dump another round of heavy rain in Florida, leading to widespread flooding.
(With inputs from agencies)
Scientists and meteorologists have been stunned by Milton’s behaviour, which has transformed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in a matter of days. The combination of unusually warm ocean waters, favourable atmospheric conditions, and the presence of a " marine heat wave " in the Gulf of Mexico has created the perfect storm.
The role of ocean heat and marine heat waves
Milton’s ferocity can largely be attributed to abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where surface waters have been experiencing what scientists call a "marine heat wave." This is a period of unusually high ocean temperatures, which provides a massive source of energy for storms. Hurricanes feed off warm water, and in Milton's case, the Gulf's surface temperatures have been breaking records.
Brian Dzwonkowski, an oceanographer at the University of South Alabama, told the Washington Post that “all summer long, different parts of the Gulf of Mexico have been in varying states of heat wave,” with deep warmth extending several hundred feet beneath the surface. This deep, warm water provides a seemingly unlimited amount of fuel for storms like Milton, allowing them to intensify rapidly. A marine heat wave is when ocean temperatures exceed normal levels for five consecutive days, and such heat spells have become more frequent and intense due to human-caused climate change .
Milton’s rapid transformation from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 within 24 hours can be directly linked to the extreme warmth in the Gulf. While hurricanes typically churn cooler waters from the depths, slowing their growth, the warm water in the Gulf is present at such depths that even as the storm stirs the ocean, it continues to draw energy from warmer water rising to the surface.
The loop current : Unlimited energy for hurricanes
The Gulf of Mexico’s infamous “loop current” has also played a significant role in intensifying hurricanes, including Milton. The loop current is a warm water current that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf, extending deep into the ocean and providing vast amounts of heat that hurricanes can tap into. This current creates a deeper-than-usual reservoir of warm water, which fuels hurricanes as they pass over it.
Nan Walker, an oceanographer at Louisiana State University, told WaPo that the loop current is usually "the warmest water in the Gulf at the surface and at depth." The current acts like a continuous supply of fuel, particularly for storms like Milton that are passing directly through this region of the Gulf. Hurricanes crossing over the loop current tend to intensify rapidly unless interrupted by unfavourable atmospheric conditions.
This deep warm water also helps prevent the typical cooling that hurricanes experience as they churn up colder water from below. Instead, Milton is drawing from a bottomless supply of warm water, keeping it strong and allowing it to intensify even as it moves closer to land.
Rapid intensification and atmospheric conditions
Milton's rapid intensification—a phenomenon where a storm’s wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours—has shocked meteorologists. John Morales, a prominent meteorologist, remarked that Milton’s evolution was “nothing short of legendary,” while Jennifer Francis called the storm’s sudden pressure drop "insane."
Milton’s sustained winds increased by a staggering 90 mph within 24 hours, making it one of the fastest-intensifying storms since 1979.
This rapid intensification is partly due to the marine heat wave, but favourable atmospheric conditions also played a critical role. Milton experienced low vertical wind shear, meaning there was little change in wind speed and direction with altitude.
Wind shear can often disrupt hurricanes, preventing them from gaining strength. In Milton’s case, the calm atmosphere allowed it to grow quickly and uninterrupted.
According to Soheil Radfar, a coastal hazards researcher at the University of Alabama, storms passing through marine heat waves are more likely to undergo rapid intensification. Radfar estimated that during marine heat waves, storms like Milton are 150 per cent more likely to intensify rapidly compared to similar conditions without a heat wave, the Washington Post report said. Milton’s intensification, combined with the low wind shear, made it an ideal candidate for explosive growth.
Perfect Storm: The future of hurricanes in a warming world
The record-breaking warmth in the Gulf of Mexico and the rapid intensification of storms like Milton are a clear sign of how climate change is affecting hurricane behaviour. Oceans absorb most of the excess heat from human activities, and this stored heat provides energy for storms, making them more powerful and dangerous.
Recent studies suggest that marine heat waves are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change, doubling in number over the past four decades.
As ocean temperatures rise, the likelihood of supercharged hurricanes like Milton also increases. Marine heatwaves not only fuel stronger storms but also lead to more intense rainfall, as seen with both Hurricane Helene and Milton. Helene brought up to 30 inches of rain to parts of the southeastern US, and Milton is expected to dump another round of heavy rain in Florida, leading to widespread flooding.
(With inputs from agencies)
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