On October 1, 2024, China marked the 75th anniversary of Communist rule, a milestone that surpasses the Soviet Union's 74-year tenure.
Driving the news
Why it matters
What’s next
Like his Soviet predecessors, Xi seems reluctant to abandon the state-driven economic model that once fueled China's boom.
Xi has increasingly tied China’s economic and political survival to technological dominance and national security. This strategy has sparked growing tensions with the United States and its allies, raising the specter of a new cold war. At home, the CCP’s tightening grip on the private sector, particularly in tech and real estate, has rattled investors and deepened public frustration.
In recent weeks, China has tried to stimulate the economy and announced a slew of measures. The stimulus measures including a bold package aimed at boosting consumption and investment, have provided a brief respite, with stock markets posting significant gains.
Yet most economists agree that these moves fail to address the deeper structural issues that plague China's economy, such as mounting debt and the declining competitiveness of its labor force.
As China looks ahead to the centennial of Communist rule in 2049, the country’s future is anything but certain. Xi Jinping’s refusal to groom a successor or establish clear mechanisms for a leadership transition raises concerns about what will happen when he eventually steps down or passes away. The lack of a clear succession plan echoes the instability that plagued the Soviet Union during its final years, when internal power struggles hastened its collapse.
While Xi’s emphasis on party loyalty and ideological purity may help consolidate his control in the short term, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will enable China to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union in the long run. The next 25 years will be a critical test of the CCP’s resilience, and the shadow of the Soviet collapse will continue to loom large over Xi’s leadership.
(With inputs from agencies)
Driving the news
- Despite this significant milestone, the Chinese government did not indulge in large celebrations, with the exception of a flag-raising event at Tiananmen Square.
- This may be because the 75th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) comes amid questions over stability of China's political system and whether it could face a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union.
- Expectedly, Chinese President Xi Jinping is not focused on CCP's achievements of past 75 years but is more concerned with future of the party and the country.
Why it matters
- According to a report in the Economist, the fear of Soviet-style collapse keeps Xi awake at night, and his obsession with maintaining ironclad control over the CCP is a dominant theme in his speeches.
- China has indeed outlasted the Soviet Union in years of communist rule but Xi, who has anointed himself as 'president for life', is acutely aware that longevity is no guarantee of stability.
- The Soviet Union’s sudden collapse, which unfolded against the backdrop of economic stagnation and political dysfunction, casts a long shadow over China’s leadership.
- Xi's party faces its own set of vulnerabilities, exacerbated by faltering economic growth and simmering public discontent.
- With the memory of the Soviet collapse looming large, Xi has placed party loyalty above all else, including economic development.
- The fall of the Soviet Union has been a consistent theme in Xi's speeches, media campaigns, and party meetings. After 12 years in power, Xi remains preoccupied with maintaining internal unity and preventing ideological drift.
- In his view, the Soviet Union collapsed not just because of economic mismanagement but because of the party's loss of ideological and organizational discipline. Nikita Khrushchev’s 1956 "secret speech" denouncing Stalin’s cult of personality is seen by Xi as the moment the Soviet Communist Party began its descent into weakness and eventual dissolution, the Economist report said.
- Xi is determined to avoid such a fate. Under his leadership, China has seen an unprecedented crackdown on dissent, from the suppression of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement to the mass incarceration of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang . At the same time, he has doubled down on the party’s role in every aspect of society, from tightening control over private enterprises to increasing censorship of the media and internet.
- In the last few years, Xi’s focus has shifted from fostering economic growth to ensuring absolute political loyalty, an approach that many argue is stifling China’s economic potential.
- Yet, Xi has been relentlessly purging officials at all levels of government, from high-ranking Communist Party members, dubbed "tigers," to minor bureaucrats, referred to as "flies," using Xi's own vivid language. The scale of these purges has resulted in the removal of millions of officials over the course of his tenure.
- Xi’s speeches have frequently referenced the need for vigilance to prevent the decay that he believes led to the Soviet collapse. “We must always stay alert,” Xi told a party congress in 2022, “and determined to tackle the special challenges that a large party like ours faces so as to maintain the people’s support and consolidate our position as the long-term governing party.” Since that speech, the phrase “special challenges of a large party” has become a staple of CCP propaganda. It has been echoed in party documents, academic papers, and even a two-part state television documentary dedicated to the topic of preventing collapse, the Economist report said.
- One of Xi’s more revealing statements came during a classified speech to the CCP’s Central Committee in January 2023. In the speech, partially released in March, he warned that “a fortress is most easily breached from within. The only ones who can defeat us are ourselves.”
- This fear of internal collapse reflects Xi’s belief that external threats are secondary to the dangers posed by internal divisions and a loss of party discipline. While most analysts agree that the CCP currently faces no immediate internal splits, the potential for factionalism clearly worries Xi. His actions—ranging from the removal of senior officials to ideological purges—are aimed at preventing any such divisions from taking root.
- As per the Economist report, Xi’s frequent references to Soviet history are not just rhetorical devices; they serve as a warning to party members about the dangers of complacency. In 2021, around the 30th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s collapse, a five-part documentary aired across China, blaming Khrushchev’s denunciation of Stalin for igniting "historical nihilism" within the Soviet party. The documentary argued that once the party began questioning its past, its future was doomed. This narrative has been reinforced in countless party meetings and propaganda efforts, all aimed at reminding Chinese officials of the stakes involved in maintaining ideological purity and party discipline.
- While Xi remains preoccupied with the party’s internal stability, China’s economic trajectory presents a more immediate concern. The country’s economy, once the engine of its global ascent, has entered a period of uncertainty. A faltering property market, high youth unemployment, and a shrinking population are contributing to a sense of pessimism that has permeated Chinese society. Many of China’s younger generations are increasingly disillusioned with the promise of the “China Dream” and are adopting a more defeatist outlook, often expressed in terms like “lying flat” (doing the bare minimum) or “letting it rot” (accepting a bleak future).
- This sense of disillusionment poses a significant threat to the CCP’s long-standing social contract with the Chinese people, which has been based on the party’s ability to deliver economic prosperity in exchange for political acquiescence. As growth slows and job prospects dim, particularly for recent graduates, protests over labor issues and housing have become more frequent.
- Moreover, Xi’s economic policies, which prioritize state control over market forces, have raised concerns among foreign investors and local businesses alike. His focus on building China’s manufacturing capacity and reducing reliance on foreign markets, while politically expedient, has further strained the country’s already struggling economy. Many economists believe that China’s current economic model is unsustainable and that a shift towards consumption-led growth is necessary to prevent long-term stagnation. However, Xi’s fixation on party control makes such a shift unlikely.
What’s next
Like his Soviet predecessors, Xi seems reluctant to abandon the state-driven economic model that once fueled China's boom.
Xi has increasingly tied China’s economic and political survival to technological dominance and national security. This strategy has sparked growing tensions with the United States and its allies, raising the specter of a new cold war. At home, the CCP’s tightening grip on the private sector, particularly in tech and real estate, has rattled investors and deepened public frustration.
In recent weeks, China has tried to stimulate the economy and announced a slew of measures. The stimulus measures including a bold package aimed at boosting consumption and investment, have provided a brief respite, with stock markets posting significant gains.
Yet most economists agree that these moves fail to address the deeper structural issues that plague China's economy, such as mounting debt and the declining competitiveness of its labor force.
As China looks ahead to the centennial of Communist rule in 2049, the country’s future is anything but certain. Xi Jinping’s refusal to groom a successor or establish clear mechanisms for a leadership transition raises concerns about what will happen when he eventually steps down or passes away. The lack of a clear succession plan echoes the instability that plagued the Soviet Union during its final years, when internal power struggles hastened its collapse.
While Xi’s emphasis on party loyalty and ideological purity may help consolidate his control in the short term, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will enable China to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union in the long run. The next 25 years will be a critical test of the CCP’s resilience, and the shadow of the Soviet collapse will continue to loom large over Xi’s leadership.
(With inputs from agencies)
